U.S. November Inflation Pulls Back Beyond Expectations, LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, December 19, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,726/mt, fluctuated considerably in early trading and touched a high of $11,790/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, probing a low of $11,667/mt, then fluctuated considerably before finally closing at $11,727/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume reached 14,500 lots, and open interest reached 345,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened at 92,600 yuan/mt, fluctuated considerably in early trading and touched a high of 93,020 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, probing a low of 91,960 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward before finally closing at 92,870 yuan/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 91,300 lots, and open interest reached 231,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 18, Scotiabank plans to restart its metals trading desk, which was closed during the pandemic, to seize opportunities brought by rising metal prices and recovering market demand. The bank intends to restore the relevant trading team and business functions, indicating its increased confidence in the metal market outlook and its desire to re-strengthen its presence in commodities and trading.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 18, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2601 contract were quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt, with an average price quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM's #1 copper cathode price ranged from 92,100 yuan/mt to 92,380 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2601 contract fluctuated rangebound between 92,300 yuan/mt and 92,480 yuan/mt, with the inter-month price spread basically between C120 and C90. Looking ahead to today, spot liquidity is expected to remain relatively weak, and with pressure from sellers to move cargo, premiums still have slight downside room.
(2) Guangdong: On December 18, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 92,340 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,240 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory increases combined with warrant outflows led to increased market supply, pushing spot premiums lower, with overall trading activity not being active.
(3) Imported copper: On December 18, warrant prices were $38/mt to $50/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Bill of lading prices were $45/mt to $55/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF bill of lading) was $8/mt to $16/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in late December and early January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 18, the futures closing price was 91,700 yuan/mt, down 590 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -140 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,000-82,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,293 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,890 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to the pullback in copper prices and limited invoices at secondary copper rod enterprises, many secondary copper rod enterprises saw very few transactions during the day.
(5) Inventories: On December 17, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,650 mt to 164,275 mt; on December 18, SHFE warrant inventories fell by 227 mt to 44,650 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, US November inflation data pulled back more than expected, and market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut early next year rose slightly. The White House stated there is ample room for interest rate cuts, while officials within the US Fed expressed caution. On the fundamentals side, supply side, spot copper cathode supply is currently ample, and suppliers are actively selling, but overall market liquidity remains weak. Demand side, performance was average, with downstream purchasing still cautious. Overall, copper prices are expected to rise under pressure today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]